This year, COVID-19 has had a major impact on people’s lives around the world. I think that there were many people who canceled graduation ceremonies, trips, etc. At Stratus, too, we are changing the way we work so far, such as changing our face-to-face meetings to online meetings. There are inconveniences, but things that I thought I could not do until now can be managed by trying them. And new forms of collaboration are emerging. Decades ago, when I became a member of society, I never imagined that such technology would become available.
How do you as a new member of society draw up a picture of the future? At the time of the entrance examination, there must have been an opportunity to talk about what you would like to experience and your hopes for the future when you joined the company. There will also be hopes of mastering your area of expertise as a specialist. You may also want to have a global business experience. There may be some people who want to become an executive of a company and lead the industry in the future. When drawing your own future projection map, what you can refer to is a future projection of society and a future projection of a company or industry. Probably, many new working people considered the industry and job type when job hunting, thinking about the future prospect of the world and their own aptitude.
As is often said, demographics are the most reliable long-term forecasts for a country. Given that the current age-specific demographic composition is clear, calculating births, deaths, and international population migration as parameters can provide a relatively accurate long-term forecast. The total population of Japan in 2015, the starting point of population estimates, was 127.09 million according to the census of the same year. Based on the results of median birth estimates, this total population will enter a long-term process of population decline. After 110.92 million in 2040, it will fall below 100 million to 99.24 million in 2053. It is estimated that by 2065 there will be 88.08 million. If the birth rate improves and the country turns to aggressive immigration policies, this figure will deviate upward, but social activities and policies to produce results will also be included in the future projections.
Although the accuracy is lower than that of demographics, the light and shadow of technological evolution are often considered when drawing future projections. Taxis and logistics functions by self-driving cars, space travel enjoyed by many people, and the acquisition of long-term healthy life expectancy through the development of genetic engineering and medical technology are examples of light parts. In addition, as a shadow part, there are difficulties in maintaining privacy due to the diversion of robot technology to the military and the distribution of information. Global warming is also a pressing issue. In fact, in the world of information technology, there is a famous Moore’s Law as a prediction of the future of semiconductor technology. “The integration density of semiconductor chips will almost double in 1 to 2 years.” It was announced in 1965. Moore’s Law is a rule of thumb put forward by Gordon E. Moore, one of the founders of Intel, a semiconductor manufacturer. It was not of the kind that there was any particular theoretical or technical backing, but it has largely coincided with the actual situation to this day, and it is still often mentioned even in the 21st century.
Intel has actually published plans to develop its processor technology for several generations, up to a few years in the future. As a time axis, it is shorter than a future projection diagram, and the feasibility of the technology is high, and we call this development plan a roadmap. Similarly, many IT vendors, including Stratus Technology, have created roadmaps for their products. It can be the details of a specific product plan, or it can be the market needs and background of when each product will be shipped.
To give a concrete example, in the IT industry, it is thought that the digital transformation of companies will advance in the future, and Stratus Technology intends to lead the market in edge computing technology. Now with Edge Compute 1.0, the challenges are security, management and connectivity. From 2021, it will enter Edge Compute 2.0 and become software-defined using open systems. Around 2025, it will be Edge Compute 3.0, adding real-time and toughness. It will be a little while away, but around 2030, autonomous edge computers will become mainstream as Edge Compute 4.0. Based on the understanding that the market will evolve in this way, a product roadmap is created by incorporating the optimal product into a plan to develop at each time.
These assumptions for the future are not deterministic, and as a result of these changes, the product roadmap changes from time to time. In other words, the perception of the future dictates the possibilities of the future. It serves as a guidepost for us to carry out our business, and it can be said that it is also a supplementary line when thinking about what kind of activities we will do in the market in the future.
Why don’t you draw a future forecast for those who will become new members of society this year? There are many things to refer to, such as public information such as demographics, trends in the industries on which companies are based, and business plans of companies themselves. Of course, even if you draw a future projection diagram, it is not often that things will go according to that plan, but there is no doubt that it will be an auxiliary line to think about what your future will be and how you will live your working life from now on.